The new century brings genetic maps, e-business
Report outlines a vision for 2010
Consumerism, e-business, and genetic mapping will cause dramatic changes in the way health care is delivered and paid for during the next decade, according to a new report by London-based PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The report, "HealthCast 2010: Smaller World, Bigger Expectations," is the result of a survey and interviews with 400 policy-makers, health system executives, employers, physicians, insurers, and medical supply leaders in the United States, Europe, Canada, and the Pacific Rim.
Some of the more critical predictions from the report:
• The Human Genome project will drastically alter health care delivery.
Thanks to the success of the Human Genome Project, consumers may be able to get their own individual genetic maps by 2010. This will spawn a plethora of screening and diagnostic tests as well as a whole new industry, the genetic mapping business. Third-party genetic mapping businesses will be the primary source for an individual’s genetic map, according to 38% of the U.S. respondents. Physicians were next, with 36% of respondents citing them as the likely primary sources for genetic maps.
• New ethical issues will arise as a result of medical breakthroughs and the aging of the population.
In the United States, society is going to have to figure out how to take care of the medical needs of the elderly with a smaller working population. In 1999, working taxpayers outnumbered retirees 3 to 1 in developed countries. By 2030, the ratio will be 1.5 to 1.
How much should we spend at the end of life?
The combination of an aging baby boomer population and the possibilities offered by medical science will create dilemmas as to how much the government, insurers, and individuals should spend to extend life or improve quality of life.
The Human Genome Project and new medical devices and drugs are among the advances that will raise questions of medical necessity, personal responsibilities, and rationing, the study says.
• The Internet will dramatically change the way health care is delivered.
The Internet will have a tremendous impact on the way medicine is practiced, the report concludes.
"The Internet gives the advantage of speed over size, and bureaucratic health care organizations could fail in this race to smaller, adaptive entrepreneurial ventures," says David Chin, MD, principal-in-charge at PricewaterhouseCoopers’ health and welfare practice in Boston.
Internet use could displace office visits
For instance, Chin adds, 35% of U.S. respondents believe that within 10 years, patients will store their electronic medical records on a source that is not part of the current health care system.
By 2010, physicians will spend more than 30% of their time on Internet-based activities, the respondents predict.
More than 20% of office visits could be eliminated if patients could communicate with physicians or be monitored through the Internet, the respondents say.
• E-businesses will crop up in the health care industry at a rapid pace.
Examples of health care e-businesses include a virtual health plan that links providers in numerous markets and a virtual medical records warehouse. Paperless transactions will become the norm.
• A movement toward national or international standards of care will begin.
The report predicts that health care may experience some type of standardization efforts such as ISO 9000, the standards credentialing process created by the manufacturing industry. The report predicts that the government, purchasers, and insurers will support standardization because they provide benchmarks for judging quality, targeting inefficiency, and stemming the increase in costs of medical care.
The study predicts a vast increase in rules, protocols, and care paths "aimed at the overuse, under use, and misuse in health care processes" and urges physicians to perform outcomes studies and work to create more efficient systems for delivery of care.
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