Predictions for the future
Here are some predictions about what health care will be like in the next century:
• There will be a new emphasis on quality, outcomes, and performance measures.
"While cost has been a driving factor in health care during the last 10 to 15 years, we see a move in the future toward emphasis on quality of care and value," states Thomas R. Reardon, MD, president of the American Medical Association.
Purchasers want assurances that they are getting good value for their money, whether they are corporations, the government, or individuals, he adds.
The pendulum is swinging back to reward physicians based on quality and outcomes. Medicare, Medicaid, and health care accreditation organizations already are emphasizing patient satisfaction and quality health care, adds Randall Killian, MS, MBA, executive vice president of the National Association of Managed Care Physicians in Glen Allen, VA.
"As patients start paying more out of pocket, they are going to be more interested in costs and outcomes. They’re going to want to know more about things that weren’t measureable before," says Sandy Lutz, health industry analyst for the U.S. health care practice of London-based PricewaterhouseCoopers.
• Health care will focus on managing wellness rather than treating illness.
With the completion of the Human Genome Project, the availability of screening and diagnostic tests will further shift the health care emphasis to prevention rather than treatment.
Thanks to pressures by managed care companies, physicians already are monitoring chronically ill patients more closely to save health care costs down the road. Keeping patients out of hospitals and emergency rooms is clearly one way to save a lot of health care dollars, Reardon says.
"The statistics clearly show that when patients comply, take their medicine, and are under the care of a physician, the bed days go down and the emergency room usage goes down. This is true of all diseases, whether it’s diabetes, hypertension, or depression," Killian adds.
• Government involvement will increase.
Physicians can expect more government involvement in managing the overall cost and manner in which health care is delivered, predicts Ernest Berger, chief operating officer of Physicians Strategic Resources, an Atlanta firm that assists physicians with the non-legal issues of terminating their contracts with physician practice management firms.
Many managed care firms take their cue from what Medicare is willing to reimburse for, whether it is a type of treatment or a particular drug, he adds.
• Privacy and confidentiality will become big issues.
The entire health care industry must tackle this issue to allow physicians to take advantage of the efficiency the electronic medical record offers while protecting the privacy and confidentiality of patients, Reardon says.
• Physicians will have more business than ever.
"We know that the single most important determination of use of health care is age. Physicians are going to have more business than ever before because of the 60 million baby boomers," Killian says.
• Technology will enhance patient care.
Electronic medical records will give doctors access to office records if a patient calls on a weekend or at night. Expect the wave of new devices and treatment options to continue, and expect to spend time learning about them and putting them to use, the experts advise.
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