Primary care doctors may be in short supply by 2000
If all of the nation’s population becomes enrolled in managed care organizations by the year 2000, the United States would need 37,000 fewer specialists, 34,000 more primary care physicians, and 6,300 more obstetrics/gynecology physicians.
Sachs Group, an Evanston, IL-based consulting company, made these projections in a study based on data from the National Health Interview Survey and National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, together with productivity assumptions from the Medical Group Management Association and American Medical Association.
The supply of nonfederal, direct-patient-care physicians, both office-based and hospital-based, was about 374,500 in 1995. The nation needed about 385,000 physicians at that time, a shortage of about 10,000 physicians. In the year 2000, under a 100% managed care scenario, the nation would need about 377,500 physicians, only a small increase of the 1995 levels, the Sachs report says.
However, a close look at the numbers reveals that thousands of specialists may not be needed, while there could be a serious undersupply of internists, general/family practitioners, and pediatricians. This reflects managed care’s shift away from specialists and its use of primary care physicians as gatekeepers for health care services.
The Northeast would have the biggest oversupply of specialists, projected at 20,000. The Midwest follows with a projected oversupply of 9,400. Every region would need more primary care physicians, but the South would need the most (14,000), followed by the West (8,650). More obstetrician/gynecologists would be needed in every region except the Northeast. For more information on the study, contact The Sachs Group at (800) 366-7526.
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