Future watch: Who will deliver care?
Nation faces major nursing shortage
It may be time for you to consider visiting a local high school on career day to tout the rewards of nursing as a profession. It also may be time for employers to recognize the growing need for and value of nurses and respond with increases in salaries. Why? Your future health and that of your clients may depend on it.
The nation’s nurses are aging. That’s no surprise. The problem is that young adults aren’t entering the nursing field in large enough numbers to replace those nurses near retirement or to meet the health care demands caused by this large, graying nation.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census’ current population surveys show that the average age of RNs increased substantially from 1983 to 1998. Over the next 20 years, the trend will lead to continued aging of the RN work force with
the largest groups of RNs between the ages of 50 and 69.
This supply shortage is expected to affect the access to and quality of health care in the United States as early as 2010. That’s the year large numbers of nurses and the first of the nation’s 78 million baby boomers begin retiring and enrolling in the Medicare program.
What does this mean for employers, health care organizations, and consumers? Here are some findings from a recent evaluation of the aging RN work force published in the Journal of the American Medical Association:1
• The total number of full-time-equivalent RNs per capita is forecast to peak around the year 2007 and decline steadily thereafter as large groups of RNs retire.
• Within the next 10 years, the average age of RNs is forecast to be 45.4 years, an increase of 3.5 years over the current age, with more than 40% of the RN work force expected to be older than 50.
• The primary factor that has led to the aging of the RN work force appears to be the decline in the number of younger women choosing nursing as a career during the last 20 years.
• By the year 2020, the RN work force is forecast to be roughly the same size it is today, declining nearly 20% below projected RN work force needs for the population.
Researchers note that employers can expect average RN wages to rise as a result of the shortage. A growing trend to substitute RNs with other less-skilled personnel also may emerge.
Suggested reading
1. Buerhaus PI, Staiger DO, Auerbach DI. Implications of an aging registered nurse work force. JAMA 2000; 283:2,948-2,954.
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