Vendor community responds to Y2K, but government’s response is something else
By ARTHUR GASCH
Healthcare InfoTech Contributing Editor
While the federal government continues to negligently ignore its massive Y2K problem, instead choosing to highlight companies like Hewlett-Packard (Andover, MA) and Invivo Research (Orlando, FL), that have had minor Y2K problems with some medical devices, the vendor community, led by Microsoft (Red mond, WA) and others, has awakened to the problem and the business potential of solving it.
Microsoft has documented Windows Y2K issues well on its web site at www.microsoft.com, but also has offered a variety of tools to help users of its products deal with the issue on their PCs. The company has introduced Excel plug-ins designed to find and convert 2-digit dates in spreadsheets to 4-digit, Y2K-compliant ones. It has also introduced a Y2K product analyzer that scans Microsoft’s program files on your PC, and catalogs those which are and are not compliant. The program then informs the user of where patches to fix the issues exist on the web. The company also is launching a listserve on Y2K, all very positive and proactive steps.
Novell is offering similar free "ferret" tools for checking out Novell Netware installations and documenting their Y2K status. It also offers a Check 2000 software application to fix problems, but charge users for it.
Another Y2K tool is embedded in a new set of PC tools available in February from PowerQuest. The solution addresses only the PC hardware issues, not the application software, but it’s a start, and it’s not as expensive as more elaborate tools.
Users are learning to be cautious about Y2K fixes. It is estimated that, so far, almost 10% of the patches and new applications issued to fix Y2K problems either don’t work or introduce new application problems themselves. So testing of the Y2K solution on a few workstations is a good approach, rather than just installing a Y2K fix enterprise-wide on faith.
The Rx2000 Solution Institute (Minneapolis) has established a rapid response center to alert hospitals to Y2K bugs. The institute can be reached at (888) 835-4478.
Meanwhile, as individual companies work diligently to identify and fix their Y2K problems, the government does very little to solve its own Y2K mess. Reports from Rep. Stephen Horn (R-CA) and the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology reveal that almost every federal agency is flunking in whatever efforts they are making to correct Y2K problems. Based on data from this Nov. 13, 1998, report, the departments of Justice, Energy, Health and Human Services, State, and International Development all were failing in their efforts to identify and fix Y2K issues. The departments of Transportation and Defense were graded D and D-, respectively.
While the failure of a few applications, even if wide spread among millions of machines, would have some impact on business, it would be of small impact compared to the failure of government systems or major infrastructure. Suppose, for example, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Health Care Financing Administration (the Medicare folks) are not Y2K compliant a real possibility, since government estimates show the agency has corrected the Y2K issues on only 5% of its computers, and will probably achieve only 55% by Jan 1, 2000. Then what? Well, payments for Medicare reimbursement might be interrupted. What would that mean? Since nearly every U.S. hospital depends on Medicare for between 30% and 60% of its total revenue flow, the answer to what it would mean is: Quite a lot!
If Medicare payments were interrupted, even for as little as a month, hospitals would not be able to pay for medications, supplies and other essentials to remain open, and would begin to refuse to see patients, or close, because suppliers might not be willing or able to finance their operations through accounts receivables. This would back up into the entire durable medical equipment, pharmaceutical, and hospital supply sector possibly bringing business in these sectors to a standstill. Vendors of capital equipment would certainly not receive orders, and so their businesses would be affected. Since healthcare represents about 18% of the Gross Domestic Product, a dislocation in this sector of the economy alone would be enough to cause a recession and a massive drop in stocks on Wall Street.
Amazingly, this is probably one of the more optimistic outcomes of Y2K. If there are simultaneously dislocations in other sectors, the economy could be headed to depression. For example, take transportation. It takes confidence for the public to fly, yet already we have weekly reports of near-misses at airports around the country due to equipment failures. In New York a month ago, the newly installed crash avoidance radar systems in two commercial airliners guided the planes on a collision course. Disaster was averted only by an attentive flight controller who saw what was happening and intervened. When Jan. 1 comes around, or perhaps sooner, as Y2K fixes begin to be installed, big problems could develop, including crashes, and if they do, commerce will be impacted. The FAA has indicated that not all its antiquated flight control systems will be replaced with Y2K compliant ones until around 2003. What happens in the meantime? Unfor tunately the systems that control trains particularly those in busy commuter corridors aren’t in a much better situation. If a lack of confidence in the air traffic system develops, airlines will be affected, and with them the U.S. economy. One can only ponder what happens if the U.S. or other countries’ missile systems develop Y2K problems. In fact, government testimony indicates that this worries the Pentagon as well.
These are the types of Y2K problems that cannot be affected or corrected by any single company, or by a small group of proactive companies. What is required is nothing short of a national action program, a consortium of companies and government, with expedited procurement, to identify and fix key government infrastructure essential to the healthy and safe functioning of the U.S. This should be considered a national defense issue. If left unaddressed by "politics as usual," or if addressed too late due to political focus on other matters, the devastation could be nothing less than if the country were physically attacked by a foreign intruder.
Identifying and solving these problems should become the No. 1 priority of the Clinton administration during the rest of this year. If it does not become the priority, the failure of Bill Clinton related to Y2K may make his personal moral failures little more than a passing reference in the history books of this era.
It’s not that the government doesn’t have money for this task. The Balanced Budget Act included a $3.35 billion fund for "emergency government Y2K expenditures," which includes monies for HHS and HCFA to address their problems. Wonder if they will be able to spend it wisely before 1/1/2000?
Consumers as well as business groups should begin to make their concerns about these issues known to their representatives. If this does not become the top issue of the presidential campaigns in 2000, it certain will be in the 2002 congressional elections and the 2004 presidential election. Failure to act on this issue will have profound effects on healthcare information systems markets, and indeed, on all healthcare markets. If the CEOs of every healthcare organization wrote a personal letter to their representatives and senators, expressing their concern about the impact of Y2K on future business, perhaps more of those elected representatives would realize the urgency of this matter.
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